Dr. Rita Bush, Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Agency, Reynard Proposers Days, IARPA-BAA-09-05 Overview , April 19, 2009. Unclassified.
National Security Archive
A 2009 IARPA briefing unveiled a bold plan to turn MMOGs into a new intelligence source, mapping avatars to real‑world demographics.
Source: Dr. Rita Bush, Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Agency, Reynard Proposers Days, IARPA-BAA-09-05 Overview , April 19, 2009. Unclassified. Date: Apr 19, 2009 Archive: Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity.
Editorial Analysis
Original analysis by the DriftSeas editorial desk. The complete primary-source document, transcribed from the National Security Archive scan, appears in full below.
The Birth of a Digital‑Intelligence Initiative
On April 19, 2009, Dr. Rita Bush, then director of the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA), briefed a select group of academic and industry researchers at a so‑called “Proposers Day” for the newly announced Reynard program. The slide deck, now declassified, was not a solicitation for proposals but a roadmap for a research agenda that sought to mine Massive Multiplayer Online Games (MMOGs) and other virtual worlds for clues about the real‑world (RW) characteristics of their users. The timing is crucial: the United States had just completed its 2008‑09 intelligence review, and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) was eager to explore unconventional data sources that could augment traditional human‑intelligence (HUMINT) and signals‑intelligence (SIGINT) streams.
The document emerged amid a broader push within the intelligence community to harness “big data” before the term became mainstream. Earlier that year, the Director of National Intelligence had asked IARPA to identify high‑risk, high‑payoff scientific problems that could give the United States a strategic edge. Reynard was the answer to a specific hypothesis: that patterns of behavior in persistent, avatar‑driven environments reflect underlying demographic, cultural, and even ideological traits of the players. The deck’s opening slide, a graph of the exponential growth of virtual worlds from the mid‑1990s onward, set the stage for a program that treated these platforms as a new kind of surveillance substrate.
From Hypothesis to Operational Concept
The Reynard hypothesis, as laid out in the presentation, rested on a simple premise: “Real World characteristics are reflected in Virtual World behavior.” The slides listed concrete examples—Russian‑flagged avatars in EVE Online being 90 % Russian in reality, or English‑speaking chat patterns correlating with users over 35 and possessing at least a high‑school education. These anecdotal data points were not presented as proof but as a justification for a systematic, quantitative research effort.
What the deck reveals between the lines is a clear intent to move beyond qualitative sociological studies that had dominated early virtual‑world research. The program called for “behavioral indicators” that could be measured at scale, such as guild size in World of Warcraft or in‑world economic transactions in Second Life. The inclusion of metrics like “customer spending” and “exchange rates” hints at an ambition to develop predictive models of economic status, perhaps to flag individuals of interest for further monitoring.
The list of RW attributes—gender, age, economic tier, education, occupation, ideology, geographic location, native language, culture—reads like a checklist for a modern demographic profiling system. Notably, the program encouraged researchers to propose additional attributes, indicating an openness to exploratory analytics that could uncover unforeseen correlations.
Actors, Ambitions, and the Limits of the Vision
Dr. Rita Bush, a career intelligence analyst with a background in both academic research and government contracting, was the public face of Reynard. Her role in the presentation—framing the program as a scientific challenge rather than a surveillance operation—was intentional. By positioning the effort as “research,” IARPA could tap into university expertise while sidestepping some of the legal and ethical scrutiny that direct intelligence collection would attract.
The audience at Proposers Day likely included computer scientists, data‑mining specialists, and behavioral psychologists, many of whom were already studying online communities. The deck’s emphasis on “eligibility” and “award information” suggests that IARPA planned to fund multiple, parallel projects, each tackling a slice of the overall question. This distributed approach mirrors the agency’s broader strategy of seeding high‑risk research across a wide academic base.
However, the document also betrays the program’s blind spots. While it acknowledges cultural variance—calling for studies of non‑U.S. players—it still frames the United States as the analytical reference point. The heuristics listed (e.g., flag icons, punctuation patterns) are simplistic and risk reinforcing stereotypes. Moreover, the slide on “Literal mapping … not always expected” hints at an awareness that virtual personas can diverge sharply from real identities, yet the program’s metrics appear to assume a high degree of correspondence.
Legacy and Contemporary Relevance
Reynard never matured into a full‑scale operational capability; the program was eventually folded into broader IARPA efforts on computational social science. Nevertheless, its DNA lives on in today’s intelligence focus on “social media mining,” “open‑source intelligence” (OSINT), and the use of machine‑learning models to infer demographic traits from online behavior. The deck presaged current debates over privacy, algorithmic bias, and the ethics of profiling users based on digital footprints.
In an era where avatars have migrated from niche MMOGs to mainstream platforms like Fortnite, Roblox, and the metaverse, the questions posed by Reynard are more pressing than ever. The declassified slide deck offers a rare glimpse into the early governmental attempt to formalize a science of virtual‑world analytics—a precursor to the data‑driven intelligence operations that now underpin national‑security decision‑making.
For historians of technology and security, the Reynard document is a touchstone: it captures a moment when the intelligence community first tried to codify the promise—and peril—of reading the real world through the pixelated lenses of virtual societies.
UNCLASSIFIED
IARPA BE THE FUTURE
Reynard Proposers Day IARPA-BAA-09-05 Overview
Dr. Rita Bush Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI)
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UNCLASSIFIED
Disclaimer
This presentation is provided solely for information and planning purposes.
The Proposers’ Day Conference does not constitute a formal solicitation for proposals or proposal abstracts.
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UNCLASSIFIED
Today's Topics
- Program Overview
- Program Metrics and Milestones
- Award Information
- Eligibility Information
- Application Review Information
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UNCLASSIFIED Reynard Program Proposers Day PROGRAM OVERVIEW 4/19/2009 UNCLASSIFIED 4
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Introduction
Growth in Virtual Worlds by Year
350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
Active VWs
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
New VWs Cumulative VWs
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Reynard Hypothesis
Starting from the premise that Real World (RW) characteristics are reflected in Virtual World (VW) behavior, the Reynard program seeks to determine behavioral indicators in the realm of Massive Multiplayer Online Games (MMOGs) and VWs that are predictive of RW characteristics of the users.
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Behavioral Indicators
- Quantitative statements regarding RW characteristics of the user, based on VW cues in a given context
Context Quantitative Assessment In EVE® Online, across all servers, 90% of the users who display a Russian flag in their user profile are RW Russian VW Cue RW Characteristic
Example:
- In Second Life™ , Just Leap In™, World of Warcraft™ and Warhammer™, across all servers, 80% of users who chat in punctuated, English sentences are 35 years or older and have at least a high-school education
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UNCLASSIFIED Reynard Virtual World Definition
- “Virtual Worlds” or VW will be used to refer to both MMOGs and VWs
- MMOGs
- typically quest-oriented
- VWs
- primarily social
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UNCLASSIFIED Reynard Virtual World Definition Has the following characteristics:
- graphical landscape
- avatars
- persistent
- massive
- goals Not constrained by client hardware
- PCs, consoles, mobile phones
- Enables, or inhibits, expression of user behaviors UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED Related Research Recent research indicates that RW behaviors do emerge in VWs (e.g., the norms for politeness) Much published research is qualitative Peer-reviewed, quantitative research just emerging Science Friday Di Rita Repine AFCEA Member Portis Netizen UNCLASSIFIED
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Heuristics
Example heuristics:
- Person is a RW adult or a RW child, based on complexity of their vocabulary
- Person is a technologist or scientist in the RW, based on names of groups or guilds
- Person is Russian, based on the national flag shown in their user profile
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UNCLASSIFIED Example Research
Three example quantitative studies: ☐ Personal space use in Second Life™ ☐ World of Warcraft™ guild size ☐ Economic decision making in Second Life™
Customer Spending In-World 2/09 500,001 - 1,000,000 L$ 50,001 - 100,000 L$ 5,001 - 10,000 L$ 501 - 2,000 L$ Total Customer Spending.. 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 http://secondlife.com/statistics/economy-data.php
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Program Research Areas
RW Attributes of interest:
- Gender
- Approximate age (child/young adult/older)
- Economic status (low/middle/upper)
- Educational level (primary/secondary/college)
- Occupation (management, technical, service, labor, educator, military, student)
- Ideology or “world view” (e.g., pacifist/militancy, multilateralism/unilateralism, etc)
- Degree of influence
- Digital native vs digital immigrant
- Approximate physical geographic location (e.g., North America, South America, Europe, Asia, Australia)
- Native language (e.g., English, German, French, Chinese, Japanese, Korean, Arabic, Russian, other)
- Culture (e.g., Western, Asian, Middle Eastern, Russian)
Researchers are encouraged to propose additional attributes
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# Program Research Focus
- Literal mapping between RW and VW not always expected.
- Example: “Furries” in VW may never dress as animals in the RW!
- But: furries in VWs may have occupations in the creative arts
http://francisanderson.wordpress.com/2008/01/28/links-for-2008-01-29/
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UNCLASSIFIED Framework for Reynard Research Questions
Groups Money and Economy Group Formation and Dynamics
SCIENCE SIM
LindeX™ Market Data High/Low/Average Exchange Rates BUY L$ SELL L$
paper plane online society
Individuals Things Avatars Do Communication Avatars and Representation
MAKE FRIENDS JOIN
“Culture”
muxlim Enhancing the Muslim Lifestyle
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Understanding Cultural Differences
- Looking for study of non-U.S.-based players
- Compare similarities & differences in motivation, usage patterns, and behaviors across multiple cultures.
www.time.com/time/photogallery/0,29307,1817271_1728550,00.html
Sydney Morning Herald www.smh.com.au/news/breaking/gamers-should-get-an-earful-of-this-gadget/2006/05/18/1147545447078.html
http://news.gotgame.com/tag/girl-gamers/
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Specific Research Questions--Individuals
Avatars and Representation
- What characteristics of an avatar may reveal something about the real-life person behind it?
- What motivates avatar choice?
- Can we predict when an individual might select certain characteristics over others?
- Does avatar selection reveal something about an individual's real-life personal characteristics, attitudes, customs, groups, or culture?
Verbal Communication
- Can we determine whether the person is a native-language speaker of the language (e.g., English) being used?
- Is the use of language in text chat characterized by a "signature," similar to that found in other studies of authorship?
- Can the path of "viral ideas" be traced through the chat history of the residents, as it apparently can in exclusively text-based media, which may then allow inferences about the degree of influence of the propagators of the ideas?
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Specific Research Questions--Individuals
Nonverbal Communication:
- When and why is nonverbal communication used?
- Does the use of nonverbal communication cues in VWs vary from RW culture to RW culture?
- What, if anything, might the use of VW nonverbal communication reveal about the RW person?
Things Avatars Do
- To what extent might cues in activities provide indicators about the RW person?
- Do individuals from different RW cultures choose to engage in different sorts of VW activities?
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Specific Research Questions--Groups
- Group Formation
- What types of groups form, what are their characteristics, and what supports their continuance?
- Does group membership reveal anything about the RW individuals who belong to them?
[Image containing text: FOOTBALL SUPERSTARS]
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Specific Research Questions--Groups
Group Dynamics
- Given the multi-national nature of some VWs, are individuals from different countries more likely to form relationships than in the RW?
- Do individuals recognize others as from the same culture or different cultures?
- Do VW residents establish more or less numerous relationships than in their RW relationships?
- To what extent are VW relationships driven by RW relationships?
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Specific Research Questions--Economics
☐ Economics
- Do certain economic decisions or activities vary depending on the culture or nationality of the user?
☐ Money
- Does handling of VW currency vary depending upon the RW culture of the user?
- What inferences can be drawn about the RW individual based on their treatment of VW goods and currencies?
LindeX™ Market Data This page provides the most recent market data from the Linden™ Dollar Exchange. High/Low/Average Exchange Rates L$ / US$1.00 300 200 29 Sep 05 02 Mar 09 Volume L$ 60,000,000 0 29 Sep 05 02 Mar 09 Show: 7 days 14 days 30 days 90 days all BUY L$ SELL L$
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UNCLASSIFIED Other Research Proposal Considerations Demonstrate knowledge of VW and its suitability for the research Non-U.S.-based players – data sources Overall demographics of the VW Demographically heterogeneous set of VWs vs single demographically homogeneous VW. 4/19/2009 UNCLASSIFIED 22
UNCLASSIFIED Other Research Proposal Considerations Minimum of 4 RW attributes Multiple hypotheses or approaches for deriving behavioral indicators KIWI HEROES HIPIHI Whyville ekoloko LINEAGE THE CHAOTIC THRONE MapleStory 4/19/2009 UNCLASSIFIED 23
UNCLASSIFIED Out Of Scope
- Large investment in construction of new VWs.
- New VW software applications.
- VW software architectures.
- Development of new interface mechanisms, such as hardware peripherals that are alternatives to the keyboard and mouse.
- Research on PC, console, or mobile platform improvements for VWs.
- Enhancing the game or VW experience through use of artificial intelligence or improved graphics.
- Study of the impact of the VW environment on RW attitudes, beliefs, and behaviors.
group membership attitude towards proposal civil or religious leader
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UNCLASSIFIED
Acceptable Research Methodologies
- Some example research methods include:
- Ethnographic methods, such as participant observation or interviews, in VWs
- Experimental studies in VWs
- Experimental studies in a Real-World laboratory environment with a stand-alone VW(s)
- Analysis of log data from VWs
- Large-scale survey research
- Case Studies
- Specify mitigation strategy for the weaknesses of chosen method
- Validate the RW characteristics of subjects.
[Image: FSB RESEARCH CLICK HERE OFFICE HOURS EVERY WEDNESDAY 11 AM ET / 8 AM PT] taken by : Ahmad Hachem on Hyperborea (208, 85, 22) blog HUD!
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UNCLASSIFIED Other Research Method Considerations - 1 Must provide own virtual and/or real laboratory facilities Specify: Number of human subjects Number of unique characters and/or end-users Planned length of the data gathering period Quantitative research methods Qualitative methods may be used as an adjunct, to inform the direction of the quantitative research, or to help interpret the results of the quantitative research. Sample size Control for “experiment farming” 4/19/2009 UNCLASSIFIED 26
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Other Research Method Considerations - 2
- Technique(s) for safeguarding privacy
- An important evaluation criteria in proposal review
- Safeguard data sets from accidental release or malicious intrusions.
- Must comply with all U.S. laws, End User License Agreements (EULA), Terms of Service (ToS), and Privacy Policies of the VW(s)
- Must include appropriate techniques for safeguarding Personally Identifiable Information (PII), including avatar names
See the section on Civil Liberties and Privacy Protection Measures for more details
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UNCLASSIFIED Other Research Method Considerations - 3
- IARPA will not receive any raw data
- National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) is Reynard’s Validation Team.
- Data set access may be provided to NIST as needed
- NIST will retain data access no longer than 12 months after the conclusion of Period of Performance
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UNCLASSIFIED Civil Liberties and Privacy Protection Measures
- Must address the following (as applicable):
- Comply with federal policy for protection of human subjects in research
- Receive approval from their Institutional Review Board
- Obtain informed consent from subjects of active experimentation
- Employ techniques to protect privacy and confidentiality
- Compliance with the End User License Agreement (EULA), Terms of Service (ToS), and Code of Conduct (CoC)
- Annual review by Reynard PM and ODNI Civil Liberties and Privacy Office
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UNCLASSIFIED Questions? 4/19/2009 UNCLASSIFIED 30
UNCLASSIFIED Reynard Program Proposers Day Program Metrics & Milestones 4/19/2009 UNCLASSIFIED 31
UNCLASSIFIED
Behavioral Indicators, again
- Quantitative statements regarding RW characteristics of the user, based on VW cues in a given context
Context Quantitative Assessment In EVE® Online, across all servers, 90% of the users who display a Russian flag in their user profile are RW Russian VW Cue RW Characteristic
Example:
- In Second Life™ , Just Leap In™, World of Warcraft™ and Warhammer™, across all servers, 80% of users who chat in punctuated, English sentences are 35 years or older and have at least a high-school education
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# Research Program Metrics
* 3 years: 2 Phases of 18 months each
* Phase 1 and Phase 2 Metrics:
| RW Characteristic | Target Minimum Probability Value: Phase 1 | Target Minimum Probabillity Value: Phase 2 |
| :--- | :---: | :---: |
| Gender | 0.75 | 0.90 |
| Approximate Age (minor/young adult/older) | 0.70 | 0.85 |
| All other RW Characteristics | 0.60 | 0.75 |
Performers should also report on the confidence limits associated with the estimated probabilities
Proposers should suggest additional specific metrics that will enable the program manager to assess their progress
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Reynard Research Milestones
| Milestones | Months After Kickoff |
|---|---|
| 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 | |
| Phase 1 | |
| Phase 2 | |
| Phase 1 Kickoff | |
| Site Visit #1 | |
| Pilot Test by Performer | |
| Site Visit #2 Assess Progress | |
| PI Meeting w/ Final BIs Reported | |
| Phase 1 Final Report | |
| Phase 2 Kickoff | |
| Site Visit #3 | |
| Pilot Test by Performer | |
| Site Visit #4 /w Prelim BIs Reported | |
| PI Meeting w/ Final BIs Reported | |
| Phase 2 Final Reports |
The Reynard Program is envisioned to begin in the fourth quarter of Fiscal Year 2009 and end by 2012
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UNCLASSIFIED Questions? 4/19/2009 UNCLASSIFIED 35
UNCLASSIFIED Reynard Program Proposers Day AWARD INFORMATION 4/19/2009 UNCLASSIFIED 36
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Award Plan
- 3-year Program starting FY4Q2009
- Phase 1 - Base Period - 18 months
- Phase 2 - Option Period - 18 months
- Criteria for moving to Phase 2: sufficient progress in achieving Phase 1 metrics
- Multiple awards anticipated, depending upon
- quality of the proposals received
- availability of funds
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UNCLASSIFIED Reynard Program Proposers Day ELIGIBILITY INFORMATION 4/19/2009 UNCLASSIFIED 38
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Eligible Applicants
- Collaborative efforts/teaming strongly encouraged
- Content, communications, networking, and team formation - responsibility of proposers
- Foreign organizations and/or individuals may participate
- Must comply with Non-Disclosure Agreements, Security Regulations, Export Control Laws, etc, as appropriate
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Ineligible Organizations
☐ Other Government Agencies, Federally Funded Research and Development Centers (FFRDCs), University Affiliated Research Centers (UARCs), and any organizations that have a special relationship with the Government, including access to privileged and/or proprietary information, or access to Government equipment or real property, are not eligible to submit proposals under this BAA or participate as team members under proposals submitted by eligible entities.
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UNCLASSIFIED Reynard Program Proposers Day APPLICATION REVIEW INFORMATION 4/19/2009 UNCLASSIFIED 41
UNCLASSIFIED
Evaluation Criteria
Evaluation criteria in descending order of importance are:
- Overall Scientific and Technical Merit
- Effectiveness of Proposed Work Plan
- Relevance to IARPA Mission and Reynard Program Goals
- Relevant Experience and Expertise
- Cost Realism
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Meeting and Travel Requirements
- Plan for 1) Program Kick-off meeting and 2) Program Review in each phase
- in Metropolitan DC area
- to facilitate an open exchange among all Program participants
- Each meeting 2-3 days
- Periodic site visits
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Human Subjects
- Must provide evidence of, or a plan for, review by an Institutional Review Board (IRB) upon final proposal submission to IARPA
- Allot ample time to complete the approval process
- No IARPA funding can be used towards human subjects research until ALL approvals are granted
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Publication Approval
- Pre-publication approval may be required for sensitive information
- Any award may include a requirement for pre-pub review
- Soft copy to:
- the IARPA Reynard Program Manager and
- the Contracting Officer Representative (COR)
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Reporting
- Minimum requirement: monthly technical and financial status reports
- Final report
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Point of Contact
Dr. Rita M. Bush Program Manager IARPA, Incisive Analysis Office Office of the Director of National Intelligence Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity Washington, DC 20511
Phone: 301-226-9100 Fax: 301-226-9137
Electronic mail: dni-iarpa-baa-09-05@ugov.gov (include IARPA-BAA-09-05 in the Subject Line)
Website: www.iarpa.gov
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UNCLASSIFIED Thank You! Any Final Questions? 4/19/2009 UNCLASSIFIED 48
Second Life™, SL™ and Lindex™ and are trademarks of Linden Labs World of Warcraft™ is a trademark of Blizzard Entertainment Just Leap in™ is a trademark of Leap In Entertainment WarHammer™ is a trademark of EA/Mythic Entertainment EVE® Online is a registered trademark of CCP hf. HIPIHI™ is a trademark of HIPIHI Co. Ltd. Kiwi Heroes™ is a trademark of Massively Me Inc. Lineage II® and The Chaotic Throne™ are trademarks of NCSoft Corp.
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NATIONAL SECURITY ARCHIVE
National Security Archive, Suite 701, Gelman Library, The George Washington University, 2130 H Street, NW, Washington, D.C., 20037, Phone: 202/994-7000, Fax: 202/994-7005, nsarchiv@gwu.edu
Keywords
Sources & References
- [1]Dr. Rita Bush, Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Agency, Reynard Proposers Days, IARPA-BAA-09-05 Overview , April 19, 2009. Unclassified.
- [2]http://secondlife.com/statistics/economy-data.php
- [3]www.time.com/time/photogallery/0,29307,1817271_1728550,00.html
- [4]www.smh.com.au/news/breaking/gamers-should-get-an-earful-of-this-gadget/2006/05/18/1147545447078.html
- [5]http://news.gotgame.com/tag/girl-gamers/
- [6]www.iarpa.gov